Locked Crate Value in the Future

[Temarichan]

So I farm daily for locked crates. It's quick gold. 13-14k, depending on the time I have during a day, I get about 3-10 crates an hour sometimes. (Leprechaun Amulet and sometimes loot elixir). But I've kept all of them ever since I've gotten a lep amulet. People say I should save them and sell them until the next expansion when the Mage arcane weapon will come out. Thus increasing the price during their demand.

But it's making me think :/

When Samael, the arcane pet came out, the price of locked didn't really go up much. (Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not on 24/7 :/ ). One of my friends said she sold her's for 22k on that day on the right time. But I don't think the price went up as much as the day when mythic possibility from crates increased. And I also don't think there will be one of those days for a long while since mythical are already too common now.

Plus! It seems like everyone is stacking up on crates either for that idea or the fact that they're bored -.- so when the next expansion comes, they'll dust off their crates and sell them in a massive amount. This will decrease the price of locked as well as loose value for them.


Should I sell my stocked up crates in my stash or no? :/ Is this the right time? Or will I suffer the concequences of low costing crates that no one will want in the future cause there are too many of them?

Thank you.

[jabu69]

considering how it costs 15 plat to open one, and people really want to farm them, then there's more supply than demand, which should decrease the price. i don't see many people wasting plat to open crates, but maybe i'm wrong and everyone spends money ^^

[Cero]

AFAIK, many also farmed crates. from the last update i took a notice on how many people are selling and i saw like 500+ listed for a few hours. The supply got too many to sustain the demand.
But still from what i can understand on how is the crates now. Many would still buy anf opened them for crates rarely gives Pink items. Means many would atleast wants Pink gears for better stats at early stage.
My conclusion is, crates on the upcoming update wont probably go high as 40k a piece guessing around 25-35k.

I coyld be wrong but thats how i see things

[Xpell]

Some people could just stack up locks to open them for next expansion for newer looking gear.

[Temarichan]

•~• true.

[Energizeric]

I don't know how much they will go up when the next expansion hits, but at some point if STS does another one of those double odds weekends, then they will go way up. Also, when they had the limited time mythic weapons, they went up a lot from that too. So perhaps wait for one of those events to happen and then sell.

[Alfred Emmanuel Tanopo]

based on the law of supply and demand, "hoarding" WILL increase the price of supplies (due to the lack of it in contrast to its demand) but only up to a certain point. Once the hoarded goods flood the market, over-supply might occur thus depreciating the value of the hoarded goods. YES it might sell higher at a certain time (like the 22k Locked chest) but it won't stay that long.

Anyway, that is based on real life economics. I dunno if it would also take effect on this game.

[Taejo]

So I farm daily for locked crates. It's quick gold. 13-14k, depending on the time I have during a day, I get about 3-10 crates an hour sometimes. (Leprechaun Amulet and sometimes loot elixir). But I've kept all of them ever since I've gotten a lep amulet. People say I should save them and sell them until the next expansion when the Mage arcane weapon will come out. Thus increasing the price during their demand.

But it's making me think :/

When Samael, the arcane pet came out, the price of locked didn't really go up much. (Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not on 24/7 :/ ). One of my friends said she sold her's for 22k on that day on the right time. But I don't think the price went up as much as the day when mythic possibility from crates increased. And I also don't think there will be one of those days for a long while since mythical are already too common now.

Plus! It seems like everyone is stacking up on crates either for that idea or the fact that they're bored -.- so when the next expansion comes, they'll dust off their crates and sell them in a massive amount. This will decrease the price of locked as well as loose value for them.


Should I sell my stocked up crates in my stash or no? :/ Is this the right time? Or will I suffer the concequences of low costing crates that no one will want in the future cause there are too many of them?

Thank you.

Is there something that you'd like to buy before the expansion? If so, buy it! Do you plan on playing this game for the next 6 or so months until the L41 expansion (if there is one)? If so, would the potential loss (speculated) now be devastating for you later? I personally play this game in the here and now. If I contemplated and embraced the paranoia about market prices and sales every week, I'd go insane. Here's an example of the point I'm trying to make: My friend paid 11m for her mythic gun when they first came out. They are now worth about 2m. I bought my warrior's mythic armor for 8m two months ago. I now see them for 4-5m. In the end, it's just gold that comes and goes. What's important is we both have enjoyed our purchased items for a long time and it's helped us accomplish many other tasks. Such is life in a video game where valued assets are infinite and the markets are unpredictable (although some may claim they've pinned it down).

I recently just sold 150+ crates for 13k each because I needed gold to purchase Sorc armor. Not at all worried about having fewer crates when expansion time comes around, because I can always farm more.

[chitgoks]

the lep amulet made it worse because people are hoarding crates to stack and sell when the right time comes

[Temarichan]

Is there something that you'd like to buy before the expansion? If so, buy it! Do you plan on playing this game for the next 6 or so months until the L41 expansion (if there is one)? If so, would the potential loss (speculated) now be devastating for you later? I personally play this game in the here and now. If I contemplated and embraced the paranoia about market prices and sales every week, I'd go insane. Here's an example of the point I'm trying to make: My friend paid 11m for her mythic gun when they first came out. They are now worth about 2m. I bought my warrior's mythic armor for 8m two months ago. I now see them for 4-5m. In the end, it's just gold that comes and goes. What's important is we both have enjoyed our purchased items for a long time and it's helped us accomplish many other tasks. Such is life in a video game where valued assets are infinite and the markets are unpredictable (although some may claim they've pinned it down).

I recently just sold 150+ crates for 13k each because I needed gold to purchase Sorc armor. Not at all worried about having fewer crates when expansion time comes around, because I can always farm more.

Alright. That really made me think. Ty for that info

Reason why I get worried is that I have to be careful on my actions in AL. I can't really go out and buy a 100 dollar iTunes card in order to buy 1700 plats for gold. Lol. And then if I buy something expensive, I end up with no gold and then I have no motivation to play. (which I hope will never happen )....

[Cremated]

I know quit a bit about this topic and have made 400k every expansion/ mythic release and arcane release. And this is how it works.

Check here occasionaly to check when things are getting released. For instance I checked Insideds and realised an arcane pet was coming out in the afternoon.

I went in game and straight away to auction and spent all money on locked crates. I brought around 28 in total for 13k ea.

The item got released so I went in game and saw as I expected that crates had risen to 18-20k ea. I sold all my crates almost instantaneously. Making huge profits and feeling happy withmyself.

So this is what should do.

DOnt be afraid to spend all money on them.

[Temarichan]

I'm just wondering now if I should invest some of my gold into locked crates and buy a bunch of them. Kinda like the stock market and buying some actual gold to sell in the future.

(Lol, I'm not an expert on the economy, despite my dad being a banker :P )

[drgrimmy]

The peak of crate prices was about 30k a while ago during the first mythic weapon weekend. Since then prices have gone down to about 7k and gone up to about 20k for the second mythic weekend event and the new pet introduction. I was thinking that the prices of crates would have tanked a little bit more since then, although I think the addition of gold to the crates has really sustained the prices. Before when you opened them you got a whole bunch of junk pinks worth about 200-300 gold, but now you get a pretty reliable amount of gold from the crates. You even have threads compaining about how people only got 2000x3 gold or 6000 gold from a chest, lmfao. So as a result, I don't think that the prices will ever fall back down to the 7k level. Then again I am not too sure they will go back up to 30k. That was during the first mythic weekend when the mythic weapons were being sold for some pretty insane prices (8-10m for the gun) so the potential payoff was pretty good. You know what mythic weapons are worth now, so even if there was another mythic weapon weekend the payoff will not be as good for opening crates and the prices of crates will not go as high. I also dont think that the addition of a new arcane will boost the prices that high as the drop of those from crates are so rare and does not really improve the payoff for those that open a lot of chests unless they get really lucky (you saw that the price did not go up that much even though there was a new arcane worth 50m). Bottom line, I personally am just selling all my crates atm, because I don't forsee prices going up much more than the 17-20k range.

[Rajnikanth]

idk about next expansion bt when arcane mage weapon comes max.price will.b 30k
it is low due to d fact that many r farming and stocking as many as 500+.
so as supply is more so demand leas which all knows price goes lower.

[FluffNStuff]

Sits back, eats popcorn. Yum!

[falmear]

15 minutes before an update people buy crates and the price shoots up. I assume these are ppl who merch or people who want to open crates after the update. 15-30 minutes after the update the price shoots up more and then goes back down as the market gets flooded. If its one of those double chance mythic weekend 15 minutes before the double mythic chance ends the prices go up again to insane levels. I have sold a crate for 75k during one of these. Best time to buy crates is during times like now because demand is low and supply is pretty high. You need to time the market right and unload your supply as quickly as possible because the prices can drop quite fast. The only people this really affects are people who merch because these people can't sell below a certain point. If you farm your crates you can basically sell at any price and undercut these people. So if you farm your crates I wouldn't worry about what the price is in the future because your cost is effectively zero. People will always want crates because its the cheapest (gold) way to gamble. I would hold on to what you have in your stash and then sell everything else now. Prices after the expansion will go up because people want new gear, there are new eggs to get from crates and the arcane mage weapon.

[Energizeric]

People seem to forget that you actually use gear. You don't buy mythic armors for the investment. Yes, I paid 8m for my mythic gun and now it's only worth 2m. But during that time I got about 7500 pvp kills using it, and I'm now on 3 different leaderboards. So I'd say it was well worth the investment. Remember that the purpose of gear is to use it to play the game.

Think of gear like you would a car in real life. It is a depreciating asset. You don't buy it for investment, but for use.

[Cremated]

Invest all when they announce one week until release of expansion

[Taejo]

I'm just wondering now if I should invest some of my gold into locked crates and buy a bunch of them. Kinda like the stock market and buying some actual gold to sell in the future.

(Lol, I'm not an expert on the economy, despite my dad being a banker :P )

I can give you more direct advice for this one: don't bother. You're taking a significant risk with your gold, which you stated is something you work very hard for. Stay conservative and just farm the crates you wish to sell. That's 100% profit no matter how much they are worth now or later, rather than taking a risk where you could potentially lose thousands of gold. But let's say your investment pays off. Can you speculate how much profit you might make and is it enough to outweigh the risk involved?

From my personal experience: Prior to the 2nd mythic weapons weekend, if I remember correctly, crates were doing well (roughly 15-17k each). I pondered buying a truck load and waiting to resell them. I'm very glad I didn't because the crates ended up not going up in price, but rather they decreased to 10-12k and then tanked to 5k after the weekend was over. The most success I've had with crates was during the 15 minute countdown of mythic weapons weekend #1, where crates were up to 50k. I made roughly 2m in that 15 minutes from crates I farmed. I doubt we see a repeat of that for an Arcane weapon, however.

[Zanpakuto]

crates shot sky high