Lightning vs Aimed Shot shoot out

[falmear]

Two skills for rogues and mages that are similar are Aimed shot and Lightning. Both have some similarities and also a few key differences. First lets establish the facts:

1) Lightning upgrades used 15% Damage upgrade + 250% critical damage upgrade
2) All 5 Aimed shot upgrades used.
3) Pets used in every test was Ribbit
4) Mage's damage with pet was 387.9. Lightning's damage from skills page was 714-892.
5) Rogue's damage with pet was 362.2. Aimed shot's damage from skills page was 681-852.
6) Both test players (mage & rogue) are level 36 with full mythics.
7) Boss used in this testing was with non-elite Ferrix for PvE tests
8) For every PvE test that was done, non-elite Ferrix was reset to negate any possible effects applied on him in future tests such as Aimed shots armor reduction.
9) PvP tests were done with on the same warrior, unfortunately I didn't get his armor value. However he wasn't full mythic armor.
10) Each test was done 5 times. While this is a small sample size, I believe a pattern can be established when looking at all the numbers across all tests.

Purpose of the test is to see what difference in damage there is between Aimed Shot vs Lightning. The purpose of this is not to suggest any one class/skill needs to be boosted or nerfed. This was done out of my own curiosity to see how similar or different these two skills are. Thank you for Meecax helping me test this and to Cero for allowing us to beat on you in PvP.

PvE Test Results


Non-charged lightning

1. 310
2. 324
3. 285
4. 279
5. 309

Charged lightning

1. 359
2. 415
3. 401
4. 366
5. 376

Crit non-charged lightning

1. 780
2. 823
3. 745
4. 840
5. 738

Charged crit lightning

1. 1005
2. 980
3. 899
4. 1003
5. 921

Non-charged aimed

1. 352
2. 451
3. 367
4. 504
5. 304

Charged aimed shot

1. 471
2. 542
3. 580
4. 760
5. 757

Crit non charged aimed shot

1. 756
2. 1049
3. 709
4. 1316
5. 1377

Crit charged aimed

1. 2068
2. 1436
3. 1759
4. 1101
5. 1851

PvP test results:

Non charged lightning

1. 376
2. 385
3. 366
4. 363
5. 415

Non charged lightning crit

1. 1049
2. 1047
3. 1130
4. 1054
5. 1073

Charged Lightning

1. 501
2. 483
3. 455
4. 551
5. 556

Charged lightning crit

1. 1283
2. 1273
3. 1191
4. 1404
5. 1403


Aimed shot non-charged

1. 453
2. 431
3. 510
4. 338
5. 593

Aimed shot charged

1. 862
2. 935
3. 612
4. 807
5. 814

Non-charged aim shot crit

1. 1396
2. 960
3. 801
4. 1215
5. 1292

Charged aim shot crit

1. 1415
2. 1768
3. 1526
4. 2081
5. 2254

Conclusions

It seems that despite having similar upgrades (damage increased by 15% + 250% damage increase on a crit shot) they seem to work differently. Part of that difference is aimed shot's 15% armor reduction but probably not only based on this. But it seems to me that Aimed shot does more damage then Lightning despite me having more damage then the rogue.

[keikali]

I believe AS also has a self buff where crit % is increased after each successful shot of AS.

[falmear]

I believe AS also has a self buff where crit % is increased after each successful shot of AS.

Yes it does, it stacks up to 30%. But doesn't increase the damage just gives a greater chance of a critical aimed shot. However I am not sure but the damage reduction could possibly stack. If it does then that would mean up to 45% damage reduction.

[Yakiniku]

Very interesting read, Falmear! Thanks for this.

I would guess that the higher normal hits of Aimed Shot are attributed to the armor reduction upgrade it carries, whereas Lightning doesn't have one. Also, I'm pretty sure that different skills carry their own native crit modifiers (before the +250% crit modifier upgrade). So that, combined with the armor reduction, accounts for the much higher crit damage of AS. When they increased sorcs' crit damage, it was probably these modifiers that they adjusted.

I never thought of the armor reduction from AS stacking. If it does, then that's pretty crazy!

I could be totally wrong though. These are just semi-educated guesses since the devs rarely confirm the math behind the damage. I was utterly shocked when Swede came out and explained the Shield formula so frankly.

[GoodSyntax]

I ran some calculations, taking the Geometric Mean for the skill damages you listed, and determining whether the listed values are inline with expectations.

What I did discover is that one of the upgrades to Aimed is +10% damage for successive shots, and that is included in this calculation, so you are seeing an effective +260% damage on Critical, Charged Aimed Shots. I also see approximately 250% damage on Lightning, but I cannot reconcile the nearly +60% damage deficit on Lightning versus Aimed. The damage numbers by percentage (the 250% Critical damage) appears to be correct; however, the damage levels seem too low for Lightning.

From what I can gather on the data, it seems that the damage probability of Lightning seems to stay on the low side of their listed damage range; whereas, Aimed Shot seems to settle in on the high side. I had hoped that using a GeoMean would smooth out the peakiness of the damage, but it's odd that the average of non-critical Charged Aimed seems to be inline with Charged Critical Lightning, which tells me that either armor plays a much greater role in Lightning versus Aimed, or there is something in the math that isn't immediately visible to me.

I suspect that there is an error in damage calculation here, because from what I see, here is the GeoMeans for each skill:

Lightning
Uncharged Normal - 300.9282
Charged Normal - 382.817

Uncharged Critical - 784.1466
Charged Critical - 960.5998

Inferences
Charged vs Uncharged Normal Differential - 127% (most likely the difference is actually 125%)
Charged vs Uncharged Critical Differential - 122.5% (again, most likely the difference is 125%)
Critical vs Normal Critical Differential - 250.9% (inline with 250% upgrade)


Aimed Shot
Uncharged Normal - 389.1687
Charged Normal - 611.0427

Uncharged Critical - 1003.753
Charged Critical - 1604844

Inferences
Charged vs Uncharged Normal Differential - 157% (most likely the difference is actually 150%)
Charged vs Uncharged Critical Differential - 159.8% (again, most likely the difference is 150%)
Critical vs Normal Critical Differential - 262.6% (inline with 250% upgrade + 10% successive DMG upgrade bonus)

Comparison of Lightning vs Aimed Shot Damage
Uncharged Normal - Aimed Shot yields 29% more damage
Charged Normal - Aimed Shot yields 59% more damage

Uncharged Critical - Aimed Shot yields 28% more damage
Charged Critical - Aimed Shot yields 67% more damage

Conclusion
I'm not entirely sure where the calculation breaks down, because individually, in comparison with charged vs. uncharged skills, the percentages are inline with expectations. The real issue comes in comparison between the two skills. I can almost accept the <30% differential that uncharged Lightning strikes for (both normal and critical); however, I cannot explain, nor accept the nearly 60% differential that Charged Lightning applies in comparison to Aimed Shot.

What does this mean? I believe that charged Aimed results in 150% damage in comparison to uncharged. Lightning seems to provide about 130% between charged and uncharged. The charged damage for Lightning should be increased to 150% to fall inline, so I believe that either this was done purposefully, or there is an incorrect multiplier in play for Lightning. I also believe that the base damage for uncharged Lightning must come up by about 30% for these number to work correctly.

This would mean that on average, Lightning should land at the following damage levels given the same scenario you provided above:

Uncharged Normal - 391.2066
Charged Normal - 586.8099

Uncharged Critical - 1019.391
Charged Critical - 1529.085

[falmear]

Whats a bit disappointing is to have 25 more damage points and yet yield lower damage. While I don't think you can compare skills across classes, these two are a bit more comparable. Nor do I think they should be the same but it feels like if I have a higher damage stat, I should be doing higher damage.

[drgrimmy]

Very interesting. I always hated the description by some people of lighting as the sorcerer's version of aimed shot. It has never done as much damage, and clearly even with the recent boost in our crit damage still does not do close to as much damage. I think this is probably fine given what the rogue's niche in the game is supposed to be, but I would like to stop hearing all of the rogues saying that our damage output is equal to or greater than that of a rogue now. Just silly

Thank you falmear, meecah and cero for you investigational work!

[katish]

I'd like to point out that our tests were done in a specific manner as to not have aimed shot armor debuff stack.

I'd fire 1 aimed shot at the boss and reset him, then fire again, reset and so on. All numbers were accrued in this manner, both by the rogue and the mage.

So either the damage debuff on aimed shot is the culprit for the higher damage, or like Kalizzaa said, "there is something in the math that isn't immediately visible".

[GoodSyntax]

I've been thinking about this a bit more, and I believe that what is happening is that the buffs/debuffs from the Aimed Shot skill occur before damage calculation.

Hence, with an average of about 400 DMG for normal, non-charged Aimed Shot, and comparing to a Charged, Critical Aimed Shot, you are seeing the +10% added damage upgrade and 15% armor reduction upgrade, plus a +25% bonus for charged attack, plus 250% critical damage.

Example:

400 * 1.10 = 440 (+10 added damage upgrade)
440 * 1.12 = 492.8 (This is wild speculation, because I am trying to account for added damage incurred with a 15% armor reduction....just a guesstimate here, since armor reduces damage, so it is not a direct 15% bonus, so I chose a reduced bonus derived from armor reduction yielding a 12% increase in damage)
492.8 * 1.25 = 616 (Add 25% more damage for charged attack, which is what I noticed from the Lightning calculations earlier)
640.64 * 2.5 = 1540 (Add 250% critical damage multiplier)

In this case, approximately 1540 damage is in line with what should be expected from your testing of critical, charged aimed shots.

So, perhaps, Lightning isn't bugged after all, but rather that the skill upgrades stack prior to damage calculation...

[Bless]

Dude, Aim shot has 2 DEBUFFS whilst lightning DOESNT!!! Ofcourse IT WILL DO MORE DMG than lightning when the warrior is on DEBUFFS.

Record only the first hits, without debuffs and lightening will take the win.

[Zeus]

I've been thinking about this a bit more, and I believe that what is happening is that the buffs/debuffs from the Aimed Shot skill occur before damage calculation.

Hence, with an average of about 400 DMG for normal, non-charged Aimed Shot, and comparing to a Charged, Critical Aimed Shot, you are seeing the +10% added damage upgrade and 15% armor reduction upgrade, plus a +25% bonus for charged attack, plus 250% critical damage.

Example:

400 * 1.10 = 440 (+10 added damage upgrade)
440 * 1.12 = 492.8 (This is wild speculation, because I am trying to account for added damage incurred with a 15% armor reduction....just a guesstimate here, since armor reduces damage, so it is not a direct 15% bonus, so I chose a reduced bonus derived from armor reduction yielding a 12% increase in damage)
492.8 * 1.25 = 616 (Add 25% more damage for charged attack, which is what I noticed from the Lightning calculations earlier)
640.64 * 2.5 = 1540 (Add 250% critical damage multiplier)

In this case, approximately 1540 damage is in line with what should be expected from your testing of critical, charged aimed shots.

So, perhaps, Lightning isn't bugged after all, but rather that the skill upgrades stack prior to damage calculation...

Yes, me and Fluff were talking about this & this is exactly what happens.

[falmear]

Dude, Aim shot has 2 DEBUFFS whilst lightning DOESNT!!! Ofcourse IT WILL DO MORE DMG than lightning when the warrior is on DEBUFFS.

We tested aimed shot with a pause long enough to clear any stacked debuffs. If there is any debuffs applied on the first aimed shot then this doesn't matter. Its part of the overall skill and how rogues use it. Because every rogue uses aimed shot with all 5 upgrades. So I dunno what you are all enraged over like a bugged Captain Krom because this is what is called real world testing. And not some kind of made up numbers. Try to talk in such a way where you don't need to use excessive upper case and exclamation marks. People can have civilized conversations without the need of such things. Perhaps you need to brush up on your net etiquette.

Anyways, I stand behind how we tested it because its exactly how you would use these skills in PvP with the exception of any stacked effects. Where in PvP you are firing aimed shot probably every 2-3 seconds. But if you'd like to prove me wrong go ahead and test it but I guess you'd rather just enrage.

Record only the first hits, without debuffs and lightening will take the win

That's what we did and it clearly did not.

[falmear]

Yes, me and Fluff were talking about this & this is exactly what happens.

Also to further illustrate the point the PvE damage on aimed shot is still more. And we reset the boss every time to clear any debuffs. So if there is any debuffs happening on the first aimed shot before damage is applied, so thats how the skill works and every one takes those upgrades. Its like testing lightning without the 15% damage upgrade. No one uses it without that upgrade. And its no point in comparing skills in unrealistic ways. Do you know anyone who doesn't use 5/5 on aimed shot?

[GoodSyntax]

I just find it odd that the upgrades stack before damage is calculated....even on the very first attack.

It's just not behavior that I had tested before, so was a bit surprised to see it. I suppose I understand how this came to be. STS is probably leveraging PROC code, so that new code did not have to be written and tested. It's exactly how I would have coded the skill upgrade effects to maximize code efficiency.

[drgrimmy]

Too bad the free respec weekend is over. The best way to figure out if the debuffs are being applied before the damage on a single shot would be to respec without the debuff upgrades and test again to see if the damage goes down accordingly

[falmear]

I just find it odd that the upgrades stack before damage is calculated....even on the very first attack.

It's just not behavior that I had tested before, so was a bit surprised to see it. I suppose I understand how this came to be. STS is probably leveraging PROC code, so that new code did not have to be written and tested. It's exactly how I would have coded the skill upgrade effects to maximize code efficiency.

I may retest this again because mages got their damage buffed and rogues didn't. So now there is more of a damage number disparity between the two.

[GoodSyntax]

Too bad the free respec weekend is over. The best way to figure out if the debuffs are being applied before the damage on a single shot would be to respec without the debuff upgrades and test again to see if the damage goes down accordingly

I know....I tried to log in and do exactly that, but I missed the free respec window by a few hours.

[Linkincena]

Well.. lightning never compared to the aimed shot at 1st place in game..
The damage of current aimed shot can go above 3k with full mythic rogue...
Its the mathematical convolutions of the game... strike at high peak of the convoluted sine wave. .. u get full potential damage of ur skill n get lucky..

[will0]

I am thinking if ice bolt would be a better skill for PVP due to the stun and slow down with DOT damage, this skill we can slow down rouges and hit them faster with DOT critical than the 250% critical by chance.

Apologies may be out of topic to this thread. Any thoughts?

[falmear]

I am thinking if ice bolt would be a better skill for PVP due to the stun and slow down with DOT damage, this skill we can slow down rouges and hit them faster with DOT critical than the 250% critical by chance.

Apologies may be out of topic to this thread. Any thoughts?

When I did 1v1 against a rogue I used fire,lighting,ice and shield. And I would win like 90% of the time. Heal isn't necessary because the fight is over so fast. If you want more in depth replies then you probably should create a separate thread.