After you begin awakening, for instance, and you don't get anything after 30 tries, you (incorrectly) think that a good awaken is due, so you keep awakening because of how much you already spent on that item.
The chance of getting a good awaken (or looting an arcane from a locked) is the same on the 1st or 1000th time, even though we have a "feeling" it's not. If you get no arcanes in 999 lockeds, you may think the probability of looting one in the 1000th is higher, when it's not.
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