No worries, I know you're trying to get to the bottom of it.
The part you're missing is that you said "they see me releasing the arrow" but it goes further than that. As soon as they press the skill button you're locked on. It takes another half a second for them to see you releasing the arrow, during which time both of you are running away from each other.
Looking at the 3 situations in the video, all of them appear to be this exact case. Based on one case the first arrow hitting, and the second an arrow not hitting, you shouldn't need the first arrow to reproduce this. It's possible that firing the first arrow causes your client and the server to line up less (because the server says the rogue fired from X,Y position and your client says "Oh I should put the rogue closer to that position" when the Rogue on the other end has already moved).
If you still think there's more going on than that, can you try:
1) Can you reproduce it without the first shot
2) Is it 2 specific abilities that have be chained or can it be done with any Rogue Bow skills in any order (Aimed Shot, Noxious, Shadow)
If there really is a specific method to do this, as many details about that specific method as possible will give us more information on where a potential issue could be.
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