Drop Rate Napkin Math

[Faq]

First, off I should say I am loving the new campaign and had a good time fast capping with some old friends. That being said, the experience dropped off a cliff after capping, the drop rate is simply insane. Furthermore, I am mostly a pvp player so farming is not my favorite thing to do, but unfortunately, with the way the sets are designed in the recent cap, it is essentially impossible to pvp without the mythic gear because of the stat difference between pink-elite and elite-mythic.

So I asked myself how long would it take obtain a full mythic set, not including any sort of enchantments? Correct me if I make any unfair assumptions or statements.

I am assuming that the net mythic drop rate, i.e. including elite re-rolls, is 1 in 500. I think that is incredibly generous given the total amount of runs that have been done by the player base and the current number of looted mythics. Now let's say each run takes 10 min, the full non-plat version of the map that is. I haven't tried the buffed boss since the update, but I think that it is safe to say this is a pretty generous assumption as well given an average team. So how long would it take to have a 50% chance of obtaining 6 mythic drops? (not a specific set per se).

The answer is 2850 runs or 475 hours of straight gameplay. Now let's say you play 3 hours a day, how many days would this take? 158 days...

Without a noticeable increase in drop rates, I find it hard it have any motivation to play when I would have to farm 3 hours a day for about half a year to half a 50% chance of looting 6 mythic items. This is just a rough picture, but I think you get my point. I think that the vast majority of pvp oriented players aren't actually going to take part in this cap in its current state. And I think that is a decent percentage of the player base.

[Mastervoodoo]

75% of the elite 110 items in the game right now, came from the gold treasure chests players received from doing the initial quests, not from farming. So your prediction is probably pretty accurate.

[Faq]

75% of the elite 110 items in the game right now, came from the gold treasure chests players received from doing the initial quests, not from farming. So your prediction is probably pretty accurate.

Solid point. Think it is safe to say the generous 1 in 500 assumption probably also includes the combined probability of looting a mythic from a gold chest based off of the incredibly small amount of mythic there are in game.

[3pc]

Very nice math skills I might say and i agree this does need to be addressed people asked for the boss to be harder( the pver’s on forums) without including the main point of drop % which ends us up with no pvp for a good solid 2 months.

[Mastervoodoo]

Look honestly, it could be more than 2 months before we see people wearing full completed sets, not even including mythical. But the fact of the matter is, the community knew that the drop rates were bad, but still recommended him being buffed instead of prioritizing drop rates. So if it doesn’t change I don’t even care at this point. I think people are getting what they deserve . Complain when it’s too easy , then complain when it’s too hard , and it’s not even that it’s too hard, it’s the drop rate not being dealt with ontop of his buff. So maybe next time something seems “easy” people will let it be .

[Misfit]

I commented on your other post about this mastervoodoo, but the entire community DIDNT ASK FOR A HARDER BOSS. There were a handful of people who asked for it. Stop acting like everyone on PL wanted a harder boss and now regrets asking for it

[Mastervoodoo]

I commented on your other post about this mastervoodoo, but the entire community DIDNT ASK FOR A HARDER BOSS. There were a handful of people who asked for it. Stop acting like everyone on PL wanted a harder boss and now regrets asking for it

I’m just saying. But I don’t care anymore, I’m actually kinda finding it all amusing at this point, I don’t know what’s funnier, the fact that cinco doesn’t listen to the complaints that really need to be dealt with, or the fact that he replies to the complaints with smart comments , for instance- “yes it’ll take you months and months to get mythical!” As if he doesn’t actually believe us when we say the drop rates are poor. Maybe they shouldn’t be and the drop table is just bugged out and he thinks we are complaining about nothing. Either way it seems like he doesn’t care lol so why should we anymore.