Quote Originally Posted by Kystone View Post
Seems like what I said flew over your head. As stephen something said, it’s a chance not guaranteed
That's why I mentioned if you do it enough number of times, doesn't matter whether you are opening 1000 locks, throwing 1000 darts or running 1000 times, you would have approached the true probability. Approaching means it's almost guaranteed to get it. By almost guaranteed I mean to say 90% - 99% - 99.99% certainty (Read very carefully what I'm about to say next)

To illustrate in lay man terms:

Let's assume the true probability is 1/500

1. If you run 50,000 times = the "observed" probability is very very close to the "true" probability = up to 99.99%. Rounding it up allows me to say that if you do this many times, your probability is 100/50,000 or 1/500. This means I can say with 99.99% certainty that 100 loots out of 50,000 loots you got are all arcanes. In other words, it makes no difference to say that you are guaranteed to drop 100 arcanes after 50,000 runs.

2. If you run 5000 times, there's approximately a 99%+ chance that you will get arcane 10 times (same as saying 10/5000 or 1/500). This means that at least 9.9 out of 10 times when I say you are guaranteed to loot 10 arcanes out of 5000 runs, I'm correct 99% of the time.

3. If you run 500 times, then my confidence level would drop more. You get the point. There's now a 90% chance that you will get 1 arcane out of 500 runs. Or equivalently, when I say you would get 1 arcane out of 500 runs to any single player out there, chances are, I'm correct 90% of the time or 9/10 times of me saying it.

Do you guys now see why I said you are "guaranteed" to loot an arcane if you make up for the numbers(regardless of what's the minimum number required to loot one arcane)?

This, is exactly what probability is.