What do you think?

[extrapayah]

if someone told you that the chance of looting an item is 0.0002% with cool expression

so we will need like 500,000 runs to expect looting one item, and then, knowing that 1 run is approximately 20 minutes, it's a whooping 10 million minutes needed!, converted into hours, it's around 150,000 hours, 6000 days, 20 years, of 24/7 playing times...

P.S.: thank you for the transparency, we definitely need this more

[stricker20000]

if someone told you that the chance of looting an item is 0.0002% with cool expression

so we will need like 500,000 runs to expect looting one item, and then, knowing that 1 run is approximately 20 minutes, it's a whooping 10 million minutes needed!, converted into hours, it's around 150,000 hours, 6000 days, 20 years, of 24/7 playing times...

P.S.: thank you for the transparency, we definitely need this more

Wait what? Did STS tell that as loot chance?

Ikr, farming for set *** is non sense because it's impossible to loot it. You can farm for hundreds of hours and then just somebody who did his first run will loot it

[Kharjojo]

This remind me the first appearance of the planar pendant recipe, where sys-luck was the only requisite.
I think it's just the same here, with the difference that in between you could've gained something worth opening the arena chests.
Cannot say the same for the normal underhul tokens and i feel daily the pain of a lot of farmers, including me.. it's kinda disheartening.

[Suentous PO]

so we will need like 500,000 runs to expect looting one item

I gravitate towards the insane generally and this statement is deliciously bonkers.
There is no reason to assume that in 500,000 runs you will expect to loot anything with a percentage of .0002

Even the "law" of averages can be spanked by the reality of "random".

[extrapayah]

yup, someone kind enough to count the rate, here is the ss:



really appreciate the transparency, drop rate should be clear enough for player to make judgement

[Faliziaga]

got me a chocolate pudding after reading this

[stricker20000]

Sts doesn't tell the rates because nobody would farm anymore

[Suentous PO]

more or less you will hit 10 bc its 1/10 chance

Closer to reality than his certainty that X amount of times will certainly come up.
If I say roll a one on a 6 sided die , you would be mislead to assume it will certainly take 6 rolls.
It's easy to fall for the gamblers fallacy.

[Kakashis]

Yes, the odds of getting it are so slim, but people are still looting. It really is like winning the lottery. During the course of a day and the countless south gate runs, you rarely see mold drops and that's with many people. Up if to elite and runs that require Hunter lix, it's amazing that we already see some recipies for weapons!

[Trenton]

it does take 6 time
bigger your sample size closer to reality

rooll the dice 600 times you will get 100 times 6 on that maybe 101 maybe 99 but top of the bell curve is on 100

Are you kidding me? Let's make it even bigger. Heads and tails. 50% chance for tails, but there is a possibility that you CAN go 20 times without landing a single tails. There's no definite chance, 100 rolls does not mean 49-51 heads and 49-51 tails.

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[Trenton]

20 times in a row heads means 1/2^20 =1/1048576, so with that logic you can win lottery every year until you die or hit by lightning 30 times etc

It exacly means 49 51 head tails exacly*

you can, doesnt allways mean you will, most likely you wont, get it?
I suggest you to have some info about probability first before jumping in

Logic does not come from an equation. That's only for people with a lack of experience and laziness to console themselves. Being a math geek does not solve real probability, experience does.

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[Fyrce]

This is obviously a lie. What moron has done 500k runs? Thats right, therefore lie.

[Suentous PO]

it does take 6 time
bigger your sample size closer to reality

rooll the dice 600 times you will get 100 times 6 on that maybe 101 maybe 99 but top of the bell curve is on 100

By that logic your saying that if I flip a coin twice it will be heads once and you will not roll two tails even once.
What I objected to is that he seemed to say he could WITHOUT A DOUBT roll a 1 on a six sided die AS LONG AS HE ROLLED SIX TIMES.
If you roll 200 tails in a row (il)logic implies the odds of you rolling another tails is low, when it is still 50%

well it solves anything you can imagine, thats why and how you live in todays modern world. ah btw if you act without calculating the outcome, you most likely lose in many situation.

love with your heart use your brain for anything else

Math implies our "reality" when it isn't, such as the fact that the mathematics of physics shows there is no reason why time doesn't go both forward and backwards.


Ps I just rolled 100 coins and got 58 heads and 42 tails, I must be magic that it wasn't the probible average of 50 50 or even 49 51
Lel

[stricker20000]

There are no ways to find out the rates, mainly due to the reroll factor.

Without rerolling they could, but honestly who runs without lepre or elixir there?

Re-roll is so useless there, you hardly need to take it into concern.

[stricker20000]

This is obviously a lie. What moron has done 500k runs? Thats right, therefore lie.

I guess you got this wrong.

[Melthyz]

Re-roll is so useless there, you hardly need to take it into concern.

I agree with you, luck elixir is a total waste at underhul. I'm not sure if a lep makes a difference. I just put it on cuz it seems like the right thing to do.

[stricker20000]

By that logic your saying that if I flip a coin twice it will be heads once and you will not roll two tails even once.
What I objected to is that he seemed to say he could WITHOUT A DOUBT roll a 1 on a six sided die AS LONG AS HE ROLLED SIX TIMES.
If you roll 200 tails in a row (il)logic implies the odds of you rolling another tails is low, when it is still 50%



Math implies our "reality" when it isn't, such as the fact that the mathematics of physics shows there is no reason why time doesn't go both forward and backwards.


Ps I just rolled 100 coins and got 58 heads and 42 tails, I must be magic that it wasn't the probible average of 50 50 or even 49 51
Lel

The less times you flip the coin the more likely it won't be 50:50 but the more often you try the closer the chances you observe are to 50:50. The lower the number of tries the greater the divergence will be.

[stricker20000]

I agree with you, luck elixir is a total waste at underhul. I'm not sure if a lep makes a difference. I just put it on cuz it seems like the right thing to do.

Yea ikr, the chances to get a legendary without reroll is very low anyways. And once you are lucky and loot a legendary you need more luck to reroll and then you get same chance on set item as if you just killed boss without anything.

The utility converges to zero. The chances to loot set item without luck are way higher than looting it via re-roll. Ofc it adds a bit of a chance but as I said its like nothing.

[Suentous PO]

it does take 6 time
bigger your sample size closer to reality

rooll the dice 600 times you will get 100 times 6 on that maybe 101 maybe 99 but top of the bell curve is on 100

well it solves anything you can imagine, thats why and how you live in todays modern world. ah btw if you act without calculating the outcome, you most likely lose in many situation.

love with your heart use your brain for anything else

The less times you flip the coin the more likely it won't be 50:50 but the more often you try the closer the chances you observe are to 50:50. The lower the number of tries the greater the divergence will be.

I can see here that we are arguing the difference between probability and possibility, I am saying it is entirely possible to not roll what he thinks is certain.
Research the gamblers fallacy

[stricker20000]

I can see here that we are arguing the difference between probability and possibility, I am saying it is entirely possible to not roll what he thinks is certain.
Research the gamblers fallacy

Yes of course it is possible to flip the coin 20 times and get 20 tails but irelia calculated the probability for that case. Probability never excludes possibility. The probability to win the lottery is very low but it still is possible to win the lottery. What probability tells you is basically that you can play the lottery your whole life long but you most likely will never hit the jackpot. Actually another word for possibility is luck in this case

Gamblers fallacy basically tells you: If you toss a coin the probability for tossing head or coin is always 50% and does not scale by the number of tosses you have already done. Gamblers fallacy does not influence Probability; If you toss it 10 times you will hardly get 50:50 (heads/tails). If you toss the coin 1000 times you will be pretty close to 50:50, if you toss it 100000 times you will be closer to 50:50, if you toss it 100000000 times you will be even closer to 50:50 (overall).
Gamblers fallacy means: If you tossed the coin 10 times and you were so lucky that you tossed 10x head in a row (the probability for that is (1/2)^10= 1/1024 (about 0,1%)) you will still have 50% chance to toss head on your next toss and not (1/2)^11.

"Randomness has no memories" thats what Gamblers fallacy says.