What do you think?

[Kaziscate]

This is obviously a lie. What moron has done 500k runs? Thats right, therefore lie.

It takes 500k runs for a 100% chance.

[Kaziscate]

Correct me if I am wrong,but with the drop rate for the helm and belt being 0.0002% from elite Cryostar, it would be 0.00024% (with egg shell ring only),0.00026% (with lepre only),0.0003%(with 25% luck elixir only or have egg ring and lepre equipped),0.00032%(with 30% luck elixir only),0.00034% (25% luck elixir+egg ring[35% in total]), 0.00036% (25% luck elixir+lepre or have 30% luck elixir+egg ring[40% in total]),0.00038% (30% Luck elixir+lepre [45% in total]),0.0004% (25% luck+lepre+egg ring[50% luck]), and 0.00042% (30% luck+lepre+egg ring[55% in total]) Also, i am basing this off the new reroll system where 1 reroll counts as 2 runs


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[Neisser Moya]

I ate cake around 3 times and twice pancakes while i was reading, i think i never read so much O.o

[Neisser Moya]

I ate 3 times cake and twice pancakes while i read, i think i never read this much O.o

[extrapayah]

Correct me if I am wrong,but with the drop rate for the helm and belt being 0.0002% from elite Cryostar, it would be 0.00024% (with egg shell ring only),0.00026% (with lepre only),0.0003%(with 25% luck elixir only or have egg ring and lepre equipped),0.00032%(with 30% luck elixir only),0.00034% (25% luck elixir+egg ring[35% in total]), 0.00036% (25% luck elixir+lepre or have 30% luck elixir+egg ring[40% in total]),0.00038% (30% Luck elixir+lepre [45% in total]),0.0004% (25% luck+lepre+egg ring[50% luck]), and 0.00042% (30% luck+lepre+egg ring[55% in total]) Also, i am basing this off the new reroll system where 1 reroll counts as 2 runs


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it's not that high, the end percentage of getting yellow loot would be:

[percentage of directly looting yellow] + [percentage of directly looting legendary] * [total loot reroll chance] * [percentage of directly looting yellow]

if we insert numbers into it and let's say percentage of directly looting legendary is as high as 50%, and we use maximum reroll buffs we can get, it will be

0.0002 + 0.5 * 0.55 * 0.0002 = it's 0.000255, not 0.0004ish :P

[Fredystern]

Unbelievable

A simple thread summon lots of math master on forum *-*

[Fredystern]

I agree with you, luck elixir is a total waste at underhul. I'm not sure if a lep makes a difference. I just put it on cuz it seems like the right thing to do.

Nope, luck elixir was very useful in underhul, if you reroll in underhul after killing boss, its like you kill the boss twice so you got the second chance to set (only works if got legendary - arcane) in other hand if you got common - epic its work like in other map common become rare, rare - epic, epic - legend vroom explained it

[Melthyz]

Nope, luck elixir was very useful in underhul, if you reroll in underhul after killing boss, its like you kill the boss twice so you got the second chance to set (only works if got legendary - arcane) in other hand if you got common - epic its work like in other map common become rare, rare - epic, epic - legend vroom explained it

Umm... and wat have u looted with luck elixir on antignome pieces? A mold perhaps? I haven't looted anything from underhul with or w/o luck elixir on..

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[Fredystern]

Umm... and wat have u looted with luck elixir on antignome pieces? A mold perhaps? I haven't looted anything from underhul with or w/o luck elixir on..

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Nothing i didnt lvl up my character to 56 since i stay in 47 for pvp, i only run in underhul when my guildmate need help =$

[Melthyz]

Well until u run those maps a few hundred times n come up empty handed u wouldn't know wat we're referring to.

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[p-value]

Btw its not %100 on 500k run with 0.0002 rate its just expected run count to get. You can get sooner or later than 500k run but most likely close to that number

Bold emphasis mine: Careful with your wording there. 500k is *not* the most likely (which is of course 1, the mode of the distribution. IOW, you are *most likely* to succeed on the first attempt compared to succeeding on any other specific attempt).

500k is the *mean* of the distribution. Nothing more, nothing less. It is ~1.44 X the median, or said another way, half of the players would see success before 500000/1.44 ~346575 attempts.

[p-value]

althought as you said the chance begins before 500k as half the chunk of bellcurve is there the biggest probability is the median
but if you say total number of players who got earlier whi,ch is the area under curve yes you are right but also same amount got it more than 500k run on the right side

my assumption is based on this actually just like coin flip


put it simple its same chance to get it 346575 and 653425

No, it's not.

You are ~1.85 X more likely get you first success on trial 346575 versus trial 653425.

The distribution of trials to first success is most certainly *not* a "bellcurve", it is a geometically decaying distribution (hence the name).

The mean is greater than the median because of the *weight* of tails (number of trials), *not* their probabilities, and the "biggest probability" is most certainly not the median, it's the mode, which as I said is 1.

[Melthyz]

Any rocket scientists here that would like to make an input? Holy smokes, if it drops it drops, if it doesn't well maybe next time. There you go I just figured out the formula... You're Welcome!!!

[p-value]

...then enlighten me if you make distrubution for all cases total runs lets say 1m total run over months how many pieces are we gonna see in game?
say it like prob of 1 piece is:2 pieces is: 3 piece is:

That would of course be the binomial distribution. Here's the PMF for 0 to 4 seen by trials:



Note that these are not a "bellcurve" - the probability is much too low for the # of trials under consideration to be using the normal approximation.

[Sorayai]

Is this mathematic competition or just
"What do u think"?
Lol

[Melthyz]

Sorry, what was this thread about? I'm assuming rocket science or something of that nature...

[stricker20000]

Correct me if I am wrong,but with the drop rate for the helm and belt being 0.0002% from elite Cryostar, it would be 0.00024% (with egg shell ring only),0.00026% (with lepre only),0.0003%(with 25% luck elixir only or have egg ring and lepre equipped),0.00032%(with 30% luck elixir only),0.00034% (25% luck elixir+egg ring[35% in total]), 0.00036% (25% luck elixir+lepre or have 30% luck elixir+egg ring[40% in total]),0.00038% (30% Luck elixir+lepre [45% in total]),0.0004% (25% luck+lepre+egg ring[50% luck]), and 0.00042% (30% luck+lepre+egg ring[55% in total]) Also, i am basing this off the new reroll system where 1 reroll counts as 2 runs


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I guess you can't say that because it depends on legendary drop rate. I calculated the chance for set item from boss if legendary drop rate was 1/30. Im not sure how you calculated that but it seems wrong to me. If I noticed it correctly you calculated those numbers based on a pink drop every run.

So pretty optimistic numbers :P

[stricker20000]

No, it's not.

You are ~1.85 X more likely get you first success on trial 346575 versus trial 653425.

The distribution of trials to first success is most certainly *not* a "bellcurve", it is a geometically decaying distribution (hence the name).

The mean is greater than the median because of the *weight* of tails (number of trials), *not* their probabilities, and the "biggest probability" is most certainly not the median, it's the mode, which as I said is 1.

What Ireliaa meant is that the probability regarding each try specifically is always the same.
What p-value meant is that the probability to loot the set item after 500000 runs is higher than looting it after 700000 runs if you consider the total number of runs you have already done.

I know what p-value is referring to but I can not reproduce the "course" of the probability in your diagram, e.g. maximum for 1 set item is at 500k trials.

[Carapace]

super fascinating thread.

Just to inject a bit of how we utilize this kind of stuff, the original poster is doing an example from the point of view of a single person farming a single item for themselves. Unfortunately in an MMO the reality is that while you may want the item for yourself, there are thousands of others that also want this item. So if you have say 10,000 people with those odds farming for certain things then you start to see that it's not about an individual farming an item, but the entire server farming for an item. This is where the largest disconnect is when it comes to loot distribution, because you have to think in terms of the entire player base and not the individual experience. If the odds were in favor of every person farming for themselves in a reasonable amount of time no one would be farming anymore because everyone is sick of getting the drop that isn't worth anything. In the end it all goes back to basic economics, and supply and demand.

Just food for thought

[stricker20000]

Bold emphasis mine: Careful with your wording there. 500k is *not* the most likely (which is of course 1, the mode of the distribution. IOW, you are *most likely* to succeed on the first attempt compared to succeeding on any other specific attempt).

500k is the *mean* of the distribution. Nothing more, nothing less. It is ~1.44 X the median, or said another way, half of the players would see success before 500000/1.44 ~346575 attempts.

346575 attempts lol. Thats about 20 years of farming if one run takes 5min and 4 hours of pure farming every day. I doubt anyone plays old game standard like this in 20years. Nothing against your numbers, they seem to be right. It's just ridiculous thinking about it as a individual player/farmer.