Market Forecast!

[Zeus]

Talon is in Pirate Chests, not Warchests.

No, it's in warchests?

[Z]

Snow vanities are wiped out from cs lol

I gave away about 6 sets to some low levels a while back lol

[falmear]

Now that hooks will be discontinued from crates, does that mean more arcane shards will drop?

[Roberto077]

Why would the hooks be discontinued? It will just make a lower chance at insane gold amounts.

[Zeus]

Now that hooks will be discontinued from crates, does that mean more arcane shards will drop?

I would think that there would be a higher chance to loot shards because now there will only be 3 items in the weapons category unless they replace the arcane hooks with something else. In that case, the odds would remain the same.

[DocDoBig]

Now that hooks will be discontinued from crates, does that mean more arcane shards will drop?

Prolly to make the drop rates higher, indeed.

Or new Mythics and Arcanes.

[Defilading]

Why would the hooks be discontinued? It will just make a lower chance at insane gold amounts.

My guess is its because of one of the threads that got really popular last week regarding people getting mad when they spend large amounts of plat and finally get a arcane only to find its the cheapest one. at least then when you get a arcane roll from a crate itll be a still semi expensive item.

also, there could vary well be the possibility of a new arcane item replacing it (bow perhaps? who knows.) time will tell friends. something is coming tomorrow evening, that is for sure.

[Z]

My guess is its because of one of the threads that got really popular last week regarding people getting mad when they spend large amounts of plat and finally get a arcane only to find its the cheapest one. at least then when you get a arcane roll from a crate itll be a still semi expensive item.

also, there could vary well be the possibility of a new arcane item replacing it (bow perhaps? who knows.) time will tell friends. something is coming tomorrow evening, that is for sure.

So what about looting a hammer jaw? Thats even worse lol done that twice :/

[Limsi]

So what about looting a hammer jaw? Thats even worse lol done that twice :/

The thing is hammerjaw is an easy sale since it's a pet which can be used by all classes at any level.

[Z]

The thing is hammerjaw is an easy sale since it's a pet which can be used by all classes at any level.

Ya I know but selling an arcane item for 6mil hurts

[Zeus]

So what about looting a hammer jaw? Thats even worse lol done that twice :/

Well, the only really expensive arcane pet is Samael...all others are less than half of it's value.

[Limsi]

Ya I know but selling an arcane item for 6mil hurts

That's the consequence of how much people are willing to pay for an item. Ever since the newer arcane pets were released, hammerjaw took a deep dive and plummeted in value. It's still a decent pet nevertheless

[falmear]

So what about looting a hammer jaw? Thats even worse lol done that twice :/

They should keep hammerjaw in so people have an easier means of getting arcane AP. Since you can hatch an egg to get arcane AP. Currently the easiest method is to hatch hammerjaw.

[Defilading]

So what about looting a hammer jaw? Thats even worse lol done that twice :/

honestly id prefer getting hj over glacian. Hj is almost always gurranteed a sell due to arcane ap Last time I ended up with a glacian egg it took me quite awhile to sell it for a balanced price. wasnt even going over, was just getting lowballed by the same 5 known merchers you see in the trade market on here lol.. its just not that much of a sought after pet it seems. plus the fact that it can be used by anyone as lims said ^_^ nobody who doesnt own a 26 rogue wants to loot hooks. except for maybe right this moment because there probably being discontinued tomorrow afternoon when the weekend event hits.

[Z]

honestly id prefer getting hj over glacian. Hj is almost always gurranteed a sell due to arcane ap Last time I ended up with a glacian egg it took me quite awhile to sell it for a balanced price. wasnt even going over, was just getting lowballed by the same 5 known merchers you see in the trade market on here lol.. its just not that much of a sought after pet it seems. plus the fact that it can be used by anyone as lims said ^_^ nobody who doesnt own a 26 rogue wants to loot hooks. except for maybe right this moment because there probably being discontinued tomorrow afternoon when the weekend event hits.

Oh I never said they should be dcd but it sux getting them as your arcane after hundreds and hundreds of crates

[falmear]

I would think that there would be a higher chance to loot shards because now there will only be 3 items in the weapons category unless they replace the arcane hooks with something else. In that case, the odds would remain the same.

I guess now the price of hooks will skyrocket and shard now will drop in price. Someone told me this was a bad thing. How were they wrong.

[Z]

Dont worry guys im sure the hooks will become a plat purchase item lol

[Zeus]

I guess now the price of hooks will skyrocket and shard now will drop in price. Someone told me this was a bad thing. How were they wrong.

Not necessarily.

Here's what I think: the hooks will skyrocket for the time being, but then they will once again drop back down to their normal value. Why? There's still a low market and they're still just as useless. Nothing about that has changes. The supply of hooks is also immense. There's usually 4-5 floating around in trader's as twinks are constantly buying/selling them.

The shard will drop in value, but not quite yet. After all, the chance to even loot an arcane weapon is quite rare.

[FluffNStuff]

Now that hooks will be discontinued from crates, does that mean more arcane shards will drop?

Absolutely not. This is just a fallacy spread by players that don't understand the math of the 'slot machine'. To be complete, I will cover both 'theories':

1) Each Arcane has an independent drop rate: This is obvious, removing one will not affect the drop rate of the others.

2) Arcane Weapons have a combined drop rate, then you roll for which weapon: This is the one that players confuse a lot and think if you remove one of the items, you will have a higher chance of looting one of the other items. But what they are missing is that the 'combined drop rate' changes based on the number of weapons, so now you will have a lower chance to hit the Arcane Weapon in the first place. Once you do, you will then have a higher rate of hitting the shard, but again, the higher rate of hitting the shard * the lower rate of hitting "Arcane Weapon" = Previous Higher Rate of Hitting Arcane Weapon * Previous Lower Rate of hitting the shard. Do you really think Hooks were dropping at the rate of ALL these items combined when they were the only Arcane Weapon????

[Z]

Well I could see them going up, as the player base gets larger and in between dry spells of content. They'll go up. They can't go down any further, imo