Suppose the loot rate of a mythic item from an old lock crate is 1%. Thus the loot rate of a mythic item from a new lock crate is 2%.
Let us see how we lose the chance to loot mythic after the new lock crate introduced.
We have two options now: open N new lock crate, or open 3N old one. (For example, N=3)
Option 1:
If we open 9 old lock, the chance we get at least one mythic item is
1 - 0.99*0.99*...*0.99 = 0.08648275 (Nine 0.99 involved in multication part.)
Option 2:
If we open 3 new lock, the chance we get at least one mythic item is
1 - 0.98*0.98*0.98 = 0.058808
Conclusion
For option 1, (aka. open old lock), we will get a loot with the probablity around 8.65%;
For option 2, (aka. open new lock), the probability drop to 5.88%.
Warning: You will lose 2.77% to loot mythic items by opening new lock crates.
And you may look more into the new lock from the table below:
(The percentages in the table are the chance you will lose by opening new lock instead of old one given certain values of p and N.
Obviously, we lose a lot chance to earn mythic items on these new lock crates.)
N=50 100 150 200 p=0.5% 13.35% 14.37% 11.66% 8.46% p=0.6% 14.14% 13.46% 9.68% 6.24% p=0.7% 14.55% 12.26% 7.83% 4.48% p=0.8% 14.67% 10.95% 6.20% 3.16% p=0.9% 14.56% 9.62% 4.85% 2.20% p=1% 14.27% 8.36% 3.74% 1.52%
Bookmarks