Correct me if I am wrong,but with the drop rate for the helm and belt being 0.0002% from elite Cryostar, it would be 0.00024% (with egg shell ring only),0.00026% (with lepre only),0.0003%(with 25% luck elixir only or have egg ring and lepre equipped),0.00032%(with 30% luck elixir only),0.00034% (25% luck elixir+egg ring[35% in total]), 0.00036% (25% luck elixir+lepre or have 30% luck elixir+egg ring[40% in total]),0.00038% (30% Luck elixir+lepre [45% in total]),0.0004% (25% luck+lepre+egg ring[50% luck]), and 0.00042% (30% luck+lepre+egg ring[55% in total]) Also, i am basing this off the new reroll system where 1 reroll counts as 2 runs
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I ate cake around 3 times and twice pancakes while i was reading, i think i never read so much O.o
I ate 3 times cake and twice pancakes while i read, i think i never read this much O.o
it's not that high, the end percentage of getting yellow loot would be:
[percentage of directly looting yellow] + [percentage of directly looting legendary] * [total loot reroll chance] * [percentage of directly looting yellow]
if we insert numbers into it and let's say percentage of directly looting legendary is as high as 50%, and we use maximum reroll buffs we can get, it will be
0.0002 + 0.5 * 0.55 * 0.0002 = it's 0.000255, not 0.0004ish :P
always milking, no service
AL IGN: Extrapayah/Extraparah/Extrajelek
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Unbelievable
A simple thread summon lots of math master on forum *-*
Nope, luck elixir was very useful in underhul, if you reroll in underhul after killing boss, its like you kill the boss twice so you got the second chance to set (only works if got legendary - arcane) in other hand if you got common - epic its work like in other map common become rare, rare - epic, epic - legend vroom explained it
Well until u run those maps a few hundred times n come up empty handed u wouldn't know wat we're referring to.
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Bold emphasis mine: Careful with your wording there. 500k is *not* the most likely (which is of course 1, the mode of the distribution. IOW, you are *most likely* to succeed on the first attempt compared to succeeding on any other specific attempt).
500k is the *mean* of the distribution. Nothing more, nothing less. It is ~1.44 X the median, or said another way, half of the players would see success before 500000/1.44 ~346575 attempts.
No, it's not.
You are ~1.85 X more likely get you first success on trial 346575 versus trial 653425.
The distribution of trials to first success is most certainly *not* a "bellcurve", it is a geometically decaying distribution (hence the name).
The mean is greater than the median because of the *weight* of tails (number of trials), *not* their probabilities, and the "biggest probability" is most certainly not the median, it's the mode, which as I said is 1.
Any rocket scientists here that would like to make an input? Holy smokes, if it drops it drops, if it doesn't well maybe next time. There you go I just figured out the formula... You're Welcome!!!
Is this mathematic competition or just
"What do u think"?
Lol
Sorry, what was this thread about? I'm assuming rocket science or something of that nature...
I guess you can't say that because it depends on legendary drop rate. I calculated the chance for set item from boss if legendary drop rate was 1/30. Im not sure how you calculated that but it seems wrong to me. If I noticed it correctly you calculated those numbers based on a pink drop every run.
So pretty optimistic numbers :P
We need party-option for raid! :P
What Ireliaa meant is that the probability regarding each try specifically is always the same.
What p-value meant is that the probability to loot the set item after 500000 runs is higher than looting it after 700000 runs if you consider the total number of runs you have already done.
I know what p-value is referring to but I can not reproduce the "course" of the probability in your diagram, e.g. maximum for 1 set item is at 500k trials.
We need party-option for raid! :P
super fascinating thread.
Just to inject a bit of how we utilize this kind of stuff, the original poster is doing an example from the point of view of a single person farming a single item for themselves. Unfortunately in an MMO the reality is that while you may want the item for yourself, there are thousands of others that also want this item. So if you have say 10,000 people with those odds farming for certain things then you start to see that it's not about an individual farming an item, but the entire server farming for an item. This is where the largest disconnect is when it comes to loot distribution, because you have to think in terms of the entire player base and not the individual experience. If the odds were in favor of every person farming for themselves in a reasonable amount of time no one would be farming anymore because everyone is sick of getting the drop that isn't worth anything. In the end it all goes back to basic economics, and supply and demand.
Just food for thought
346575 attempts lol. Thats about 20 years of farming if one run takes 5min and 4 hours of pure farming every day. I doubt anyone plays old game standard like this in 20years. Nothing against your numbers, they seem to be right. It's just ridiculous thinking about it as a individual player/farmer.
We need party-option for raid! :P
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